Analysts offer mixed views on odds of ‘Operation 1027’ expanding into Arakan

By Admin 09 Nov 2023

DMG Newsroom
9 November 2023, Sittwe

“Operation 1027,” an offensive being carried out by the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance, is gaining momentum, and the theatre of operations in northeastern Myanmar continues to expand.

Meanwhile, a statement issued by the Brotherhood Alliance — comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) — on Wednesday described increased junta movements in Arakan State and tighter checks in public areas. 

Given the current dynamics, political analysts have suggested that Operation 1027 could expand to Arakan State.

“The military council may start trouble here because of its anger over the situation in central Myanmar,” said politician U Pe Than. “They are fighting a multifront war, and are therefore not willing to fight another front in Arakan State. But AA and the military council are already at war. So, we can’t dismiss the possibility of fighting in Arakan State. And both sides have been preparing for war.”

The statement by the Brotherhood Alliance noted that the regime has imposed tighter checks on travel by social activists and civil society organisations in Arakan State, arrested local journalists, and has continued to carry out live-fire drills, all of which could presage an eventual Operation 1027 front in Arakan State.

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing said the Myanmar military was severely short of personnel to fight in Arakan State. 

“Seventy percent of Arakan State is under the control of the AA. So, it is unlikely that the regime can do any military operation there. It is quite a challenge to the military leader to muster troops to fight in Arakan,” he said.

In the less than two weeks since the offensive was launched, the ethnic alliance has taken control of Chin Shwe Haw, Phaungsai, Hsenwi, Kyugoke (Pansai), Kawlin and Mong Ko towns. The alliance has seized around 150 junta positions and six armoured vehicles and tanks in the fighting. 

But the alliance’s triumphs in distant lands have left local people in Arakan State concerned that fighting may break out much closer to home.

“We are concerned that Operation 1027 could expand to Arakan State. We are considering whether we should dig bomb shelters at our houses,” said Sittwe resident Daw Khin Than Mya.
 
According to BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor, the Burma People’s Liberation Army, Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, People’s Liberation Army and Mandalay People’s Defense Force, which are under the command of the shadow National Unity Government, are fighting alongside the Brotherhood Alliance in Operation 1027.

The offensive has expanded across northern and eastern Shan State, at Laukkai in the Kokang self-administered zone, in Mandalay’s Mogok and Pyin Oo Lwin, and at Kawlin in Sagaing Region, according to BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor.