Truce between junta, Brotherhood Alliance will not guarantee China’s interests: political observers

By Admin 13 Jan 2024

DMG Newsroom
13 January 2024, Sittwe

‘Operation 1027,’ which lasted for nearly three months, resulted in a temporary ceasefire between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State with the mediation of China.
Regarding the temporary ceasefire, a Three Brotherhood Alliance statement said: “Both parties agreed not to harm or destroy the security of Chinese nationals in the China-Myanmar border and their investments in Myanmar.”

The outcome comes after the military regime, which has been struggling with military issues, met three times in December and January for talks with the Three Brotherhood Alliance, with China’s mediation.

Although the Three Brotherhood Alliance is dealing with China with military activity on the border, political analysts believe that there is no long-term guarantee that China’s interests will not be harmed.

“The Three Brotherhood Alliance agreed to negotiate with the military regime, fearing that it would lose its rights to use the Chinese border. I don’t think it will be easy for China’s interests to be harmed in the long run because the fighting is ongoing in Arakan State,” said an 88 Generation student in Arakan State.

With the temporary ceasefire agreement between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance coming into effect on January 12, the military attacked civilian communities in the northern Shan State with airstrikes and artillery strikes the following day.

The military launched an attack on a hill controlled by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Kyaukme at about 9 a.m. on January 13 and the fighting lasted for two hours. The TNLA retreated from the hill as the military’s attack would have otherwise harmed civilians, the Three Brotherhood Alliance said in a statement on Saturday.

This action is the second time the junta has violated the ceasefire signed on January 11, the Three Brotherhood Alliance said.

There was no fighting between the military and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in the operational areas in northern Shan State on Friday, but the junta deliberately opened fire on civilians and communities.

On the other hand, China is carrying out the Shwe gas project as a large-scale investment in Myanmar, and is also trying to implement the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the Kyaukphyu Economic Zone.

The Shwe gas project is to export oil and natural gas to Kunming, China, through a pipeline running through Kyaukphyu Township in Arakan State, passing through Magway and Mandalay Regions and northern Shan State.

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is set to build a railway through Kunming in Yunnan province of China, through Muse in northern Shan State to Mandalay and Kyaukphyu. The Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone is linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project and is set in Kyaukphyu and Ramree townships.

The military and the Arakan Army (AA) have also fought in Kyaukphyu Township, where the Chinese project is located, for the past few days, and military tensions remain high.

“China has to deal with the military regime according to its policy, whether it is good or bad. But China needs to stand by the people rather than supporting the military regime,” said a local politician in Kyaukphyu.

Currently, construction of the railway from Kunming to the Muse border has been completed for the BRI project, but due to the hostilities in northern Shan State and clashes in Arakan State, larger-scale implementation is still uncertain.