Editorial: All Quiet on the Western Front?

By DMG 10 Feb 2022

DMG Newsroom, 10 February 2022 

It may seem that Arakan State these days is a region of relative calm, at a time when civil war is raging across much of Myanmar. In the two years preceding an informal ceasefire in late 2020, however, the war in Arakan State between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army was the country’s conflict hotspot. That fighting, coupled with the mass exodus of Muslims to neighbouring Bangladesh in 2016-17 — when more than 700,000 fled a brutal military crackdown in response to attacks on security forces by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army — focused much national and international attention on Arakan State. 

Fast-forward to 2022, and it is much of the rest of Myanmar that is roiled by conflict and tragedy, while Arakan State has seen almost none of the violence between the military regime and anti-junta forces that has been an almost daily occurrence since the coup on February 1, 2021. A casual observer might even describe this as a period of relative peace for Arakan State — but it is, if anything, an uneasy peace at best. 

Competition between the military and Arakan Army (AA) continues, largely moving from the battlefield to influence arenas, where the two sides compete for the hearts and minds of Arakan State’s people, and for governing legitimacy and power.  

Meanwhile, clashes between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army (AA) have resumed in northern Maungdaw Township. People worry that this may mark the resumption of war in Arakan State. The military is tightening its grip on travellers, conduct that local residents know all too well from the days of active conflict in Arakan State. Security checkpoints have been set up on major roads and transportation restrictions have been placed on some goods, including rice, dried foods and medicines.  

In addition to day-to-day problems, long-standing issues continue to fester. Unresolved land compensation claims have not stopped successive governments, in conjunction with business interests, from pushing ahead with infrastructure and industrial projects in the ostensible name of regional development. 

The plight of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Arakan State continues. Some IDPs whose homes were burned down during the armed conflict have not been able to return because promises to help them rebuild have yet to be met. Other IDPs want to return to homes that are still standing, but they dare not for fear of landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERWs). 

In December, a series of provocative incidents raised concerns that someone or some group was trying to stir up tensions in Arakan State. There have been many instances where successive regimes have created political turmoil for one reason or another, and wary minds saw echoes of the past in December’s incidents. Looking back at the recent events, it is reasonable to posit that some nefarious actor or actors want to ignite sectarian conflict in Arakan State, which has seen intercommunal violence before. 

Multi-ethnic Arakan State is a mix of Buddhist Arakanese and non-Arakanese such as Muslims, Chin and Burmese people, all of whom need to be especially mindful of potential traps laid by those who want to trigger ethnic strife. 

The junta recently said it is implementing a plan to accept Muslim returnees from Bangladesh. Its predecessor government communicated similar intentions in previous years, but arguably never in such a fraught context — both regionally and nationally — as the current moment. Given the complex situation in Arakan State, it is fair to ask whether the planned repatriation programme is being put forward now, of all times, in good faith. The junta has not even been able to properly address internal displacement issues, so the idea that it will effectively handle the return of more than 700,000 Muslim refugees is wishful thinking, to say the least. 

The resumption of hostilities between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army is particularly troubling because their peaceful coexistence is of paramount importance to the overall stability and wellbeing of Arakan State. Officials on both sides need to work together to prevent further fighting. 

With all of this in mind, DMG feels now more than ever that these two armies and the people of Arakan State must work together to prevent an escalation of increasingly tense dynamics in the state.