Interview: 'AA will achieve its military objectives next year'

By Admin 21 Nov 2024

DMG Newsroom
21 November 2024, Mrauk-U

Last week Wednesday marked one year since the latest fighting broke out between the Myanmar military and the Arakkha Army (AA) in Arakan State. DMG recently interviewed U Pe Than, a political and military observer and former Lower House lawmaker for Arakan State, about the AA's achievements over the past year, and the possible scenarios that might play out in Arakan State in the year ahead.

DMG: How do you assess the present military situation in Arakan State?

U Pe Than: It has been one year since the latest fighting broke out in Arakan State. The AA has seized 11 townships including Chin State's Paletwa Township, and hundreds of junta positions including tactical operations commands and border guard police battalions.

Fighting has been raging at Border Guard Police Battalion No. 5 in Maungdaw, in Gwa and Taungup [townships] and at the Western Command headquarters in Ann. The AA has also encircled Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.

The AA has also installed administration, courts and law enforcement in townships it has seized. The United League of Arakan/Arakkha Army (ULA/AA) has achieved more than we had expected. The regime was unable to resist the AA's tremendous offensive over the past year.

DMG: How important do you think Taungup and Ann are for military purposes?

U Pe Than: The AA has carried out an onslaught on Taungup, and I heard the AA troops have almost reached the other end of the town. Ann and Taungup are crucial for Arakan State.

The Ann-Padan road and Taungup-Pandaung roads connect Arakan State with central Myanmar, and are thus crucial for the flow of commodities. The regime must use those roads if it is to launch a counteroffensive. And the AA must also use those roads if it is to open new fronts in central Myanmar. There are junta ordnance factories along the plains between the Ayeyarwady River and the Arakan Mountains. So, those roads are crucial for military purposes.

DMG: When do you think the AA will launch an attack on Sittwe and Kyaukphyu towns?

U Pe Than: The AA has encircled Sittwe. I think it will attack it after capturing Maungdaw. It will also take time to develop a strategy before attacking both Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. There could be heavy civilian casualties if clashes break out in those coastal towns. The regime can use heavy artillery to attack them. It can also use the Navy to provide artillery support. So, the AA may take time.

DMG: What do you expect in terms of military and political developments in Arakan State next year?

U Pe Than: I assume the AA will achieve its military objectives in 2025. And I am interested to see how the ULA and AA will shape the political landscape in Arakan State then.

DMG: China has significant interests in Kyaukphyu. How will the AA approach that issue?

U Pe Than: The AA will protect the interests of the international community including China. It has invited foreign investments in Arakan State, and it will protect existing foreign investments.

The China-backed oil and gas pipelines run from Kyaukphyu through central Myanmar. So, if a group wants to blow them up, there are many places it can do so. Not only the AA, but other revolutionary groups can blow them up. But destroying them will serve no one's interest. By protecting those investments, Arakan State can have economic opportunities in the future.

DMG: What is your assessment of the AA's performance over the past year?

U Pe Than: I believe the AA will serve the interests of residents in Arakan State. I believe it will bring about the autonomy, self-determination and business opportunities that those residents in Arakan State desire.

DMG: How long will it take for the AA to achieve its military objectives?

U Pe Than: I can't predict precisely. But it has seized 10 townships in just a year. It has also been attacking some towns, and has besieged some towns. The AA chief said he would give Arakan State as a present to people there in 2025. So, I assume that it will be able to achieve its military objectives next year.

DMG: What are your thoughts on the junta's air raids over the past year?

U Pe Than: Those air attacks mostly hit civilians, but not the AA. The regime has targeted public places like markets, schools and roads. It has been committing war crimes. Their attacks will do no harm to the AA, but [the regime] will completely lose public support over time.

The international community has documented its human rights violations. That bad record will negatively affect its chances to engage with the international community. No organisation should target civilians.

DMG: What has the international community done in response to the junta's air raids?

U Pe Than: The international community has been monitoring the junta's war crimes. They impose economic sanctions, and [some countries enforce] an arms embargo against the regime. But they haven't done as much as we had expected. We will have to rely on ourselves to root out the military dictatorship. We can't rely much on the international community.