Arakan State chief minister likely to be drawn from military or USDP, analysts say

By Admin 25 Mar 2026

DMG Newsroom

25 March 2026, Sittwe

Following the military regime’s election in three townships in Arakan State and the convening of the State Hluttaw, political observers say the next chief minister is likely to come from either the military or the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

The regime has already appointed the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Arakan State Hluttaw from the USDP, and the formation of the state government is expected in the coming days.

Arakanese politicians say the chief minister will likely be a figure with a military background familiar with Arakan affairs or a senior USDP member.

“My assessment is that the chief minister will be from either the military or the USDP. Since the USDP’s top figure in Arakan State has already been appointed as the State Hluttaw Speaker, it is more likely that the chief minister will be a former military officer or someone close to the military,” said U Myo Kyaw, general secretary of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD).

He noted that the appointment of Dr. San Shwe, Arakan State chairman of the USDP, as State Hluttaw Speaker on March 20 further increases the likelihood that the chief minister will be selected from the military.

Observers suggest that the current junta-appointed chief minister, former Colonel Htein Lin, could be reappointed, or the post could be given to another former military officer with knowledge of the state.

According to the Union Election Commission (UEC), 21 representatives secured seats in the Arakan State Hluttaw following the 2025 election. The USDP holds the majority with 12 seats, followed by the Arakan Front Party (AFP) with five seats and the Rakhine Nationalities Party (RNP) with four seats.

A former lawmaker said that with Arakan State-based parties holding limited seats and the state still affected by conflict, it is unlikely that the chief minister position will be offered to local political parties.

“Even in past elections, Arakanese parties did not secure enough seats to control the parliament. This parliament is structured to implement the central government’s agenda. Given the current situation, authority will remain tightly controlled by the centre [the regime],” the former lawmaker said.

He added that even if ethnic parties are granted ministerial roles, they would have limited influence.

Politicians also noted that representatives elected under the proportional representation system from townships controlled by the Arakan Army were not chosen through a popular vote, raising concerns about their ability to represent public interests.

Under Section 261(b) of the 2008 Constitution, the President appoints the state chief minister and has the authority to remove them at any time.

Previous Arakan State chief ministers include U Hla Maung Tin of the USDP (2011–2014), Major General Maung Maung Ohn (2014–2016), U Nyi Pu of the National League for Democracy (2016–2021), and Dr. Aung Kyaw Min (2021–2023). The current chief minister is former Colonel Htein Lin.

Despite Arakan-based parties such as the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP) and the Arakan National Party (ANP) winning significant seats in past elections, the chief minister position has historically been held by the USDP and the NLD.