One year since resumption of conflict in Arakan State
Military and political observers say the AA will take time before launching an offensive against Kyaukphyu Township, the site of multiple Chinese mega-projects.
13 Nov 2024
DMG Newsroom
13 November 2024, Mrauk-U
Wednesday marked one year since the latest fighting between the Myanmar military and Arakkha Army (AA) broke out in Arakan State on November 13, 2023.
In the 12 months since, the AA has seized Pauktaw, Myebon, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Ramree, and Thandwe townships in Arakan State, plus Paletwa Township in neighbouring Chin State.
Fighting has been raging in other townships including Ann, Taungup, Gwa and Maungdaw, with AA troops advancing on the military’s Western Command headquarters in Ann.
Military and political observers say the AA will take time before launching an offensive against Kyaukphyu Township, the site of multiple Chinese mega-projects.
Military and political analyst U Pe Than said: “The AA has encircled Sittwe. I think they will attack it after seizing Maungdaw. It may also take time before attacking Kyaukphyu. Fighting in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu could inflict heavy civilian casualties. As the two towns are coastal towns, the regime can use heavy artillery and warships.”
The AA has vowed to seize all junta positions in Arakan State. The armed group will try to liberate the entirety of Arakan State in 2025, said U Pe Than.
“I assume the AA will achieve its military objectives next year. It will be interesting to see how the AA and the United League of Arakan will shape Arakan State politically then,” he said.
The regime has carried out indiscriminate air and artillery attacks on residential areas, inflicting civilian casualties and property damage.
According to DMG tallies, 605 civilians were killed and 1,053 others were injured over the past year, with air raids responsible for the majority of civilian casualties.
Local residents have been suffering from various hardships due to the conflict.
One Mrauk-U resident said: “We sleep beneath our house at night as aircraft often fly over the town. We have lost our source of livelihood. We left behind our belongings when we fled the fighting. Some belongings were damaged.”
According to a recent report by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, nearly 700,000 people have been displaced by the fighting over the past year. Most of them need food, shelter, medicines and other vital items, according to volunteers.