El Niño threatens Arakan State with extreme heat, drought and water shortages

By Admin 24 Sep 2026

DMG Newsroom

24 September 2026, Ponnagyun

Myanmar is expected to experience strong El Niño conditions toward the end of 2026, potentially triggering severe weather events, according to a September announcement by the junta-controlled Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH).

The DMH reported that a strong El Niño phenomenon could cause irregular rainfall patterns, unusual storm formations, elevated temperatures during the summer, severe droughts, and other extreme climate events.

Environmental and climate experts warn that these extreme weather patterns could have wide ranging impacts on healthcare, drinking water supplies, agriculture, and livestock breeding across Arakan State.

Meteorologists noted that the effects of El Niño are expected to become most pronounced in Myanmar during November, December, and January, advising farmers and livestock breeders to make preparations in advance.

"Temperatures will rise significantly," a male environmental expert said. "Even if paddy plants grow tall, crop yields could decline. Everyone from local youth and community leaders to responsible officials should systematically manage water resources for agricultural use."

Regional climate outlooks from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) similarly indicate that El Niño will remain strong from the second half of 2026 into early 2027, altering temperature and precipitation patterns across coastal and southern Myanmar.

As a result, Arakan State could face severe impacts from El Niño, requiring farmers to harvest and store sufficient rainwater, avoid heat sensitive chemical fertilizers, and implement proactive water and agricultural management measures for the coming season.

Displaced populations in Arakan State experienced acute water shortages during the 2025 dry season, prompting analysts to urge early preparations ahead of this year's El Niño conditions.

"Because of last year's water scarcity, people dug new ponds across displacement camps this year," a male resident of Ponnagyun Township said. "If we face extreme heat, systematic advance planning will prove far better. Strong preparations will mitigate severe hardship."

According to a September 3 statement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño could reach strong intensity by late 2026, with a high probability of persisting through February 2027.

The WMO warned that the global climate phenomenon will alter regional temperature and precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and flash floods.

The DMH cautioned that El Niño could pose dual threats to Myanmar, causing severe droughts alongside sudden flooding and necessitating comprehensive disaster preparedness across different sectors.