Peace talks unlikely to blunt Operation 1027’s momentum: political analysts

By Admin 12 Dec 2023

DMG Newsroom
12 December 2023, Sittwe

The Brotherhood Alliance, which is conducting its ‘Operation 1027’, and the regime have held talks thanks to China’s mediation, but political analysts say the operation is not likely to be stopped.

U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, said the Brotherhood Alliance’s meeting with the regime was an inevitable discussion due to China’s mediation, and would not lead to political change.

“The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the regime agreed to a 15-day ceasefire during the meeting. But ‘Operation 1027’ will not be nullified and fighting will continue, so this will not be a political change,” he added.

U Than Soe Naing noted that the regime and the MNDAA agreed to a temporary ceasefire for 15 days until the end of December, and the withdrawal of junta troops from Laukkai.

The Brotherhood Alliance, made up of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army, and the junta's National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) met in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China, on December 11, the junta said.

There are reports that the TNLA and AA were not included in the meeting, and there has been no statement from the Brotherhood Alliance regarding the meeting. DMG continues to attempt to contact officials from the Three Brotherhood Alliance regarding the matter.

U Tun Kyi, a political analyst, said that with the success of the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, a ceasefire with the regime will not happen.

‘While Operation 1027 is gaining momentum, we must watch for a ceasefire between the regime and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. In such a situation, it is unlikely that the fighting will stop en masse. There is no political change yet,” he added.

Despite the meeting between the regime and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, fighting in Arakan State continues unabated.

Some junta camps in Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Ann and Myebon townships in Arakan State unleashed heavy weapons and small arms fire and conducted airstrikes, the AA said in a statement on Tuesday.

A junta jet fighter strafed near a junta tactical command base in Nonebu, northern Paletwa Township, Chin State, on Tuesday morning following the Arakan Army’s seizure of the base, the AA’s statement added.

The talks between the regime and the Three Brotherhood Alliance could lead to a temporary ceasefire in some areas, but there is little chance of an all-encompassing ceasefire, analysts say.

“These peace talks may bring about some changes in Northern Shan State, but there will not be major changes in the whole country. The revolution against the military dictatorship currently taking place in various places is not dependent on a single group or region,” said an official from the All Burma Federation of Student Unions (ABFSU).

Chin Shwe Haw, Monekoe, Kunlong, Pansai, and Kongyan in northern Shan State and four major trading gates along the Myanmar-China border have been seized by the Three Brotherhood Alliance since the launch of Operation 1027 on October 27.