Observers predict AA control of all Arakan State by 2025

By Admin 13 Aug 2024

DMG Newsroom
13 August 2024, Sittwe

As Tuesday marked nine months since the latest fighting between Myanmar's military regime and the Arakkha Army (AA) broke out in Arakan State on November 13, the ethnic armed group's gains appeared likely to continue.

Since launching its offensive in November, the AA has seized effective control over the majority of Arakan State's 17 townships as well as Paletwa Township in neighbouring Chin State. If the trendlines hold, observers say the AA will be able to claim control of the entirety of Arakan State sometime next year.

"The AA chief said there would be a change for Arakan State in 2025. It is four months until the end of 2024," Arakanese political and military analyst Ko Tun Kyi noted. "The AA has seized half of Arakan State. It is currently conducting offensives in Ann, Maungdaw, Gwa, Thandwe and Taungup townships. So, it is likely that it can seize the entire Arakan State."

The AA is currently focused on capturing Maungdaw and Thandwe townships, attacking the last junta battalions in those townships. It also launched attacks in Gwa Township last week, attacking junta positions in Kyeintali Town.

The AA has also surrounded junta battalions' headquarters in Sittwe, Ann, Kyaukphyu and Taungup townships.

Political analyst and veteran Arakanese politician U Pe Than said the AA's battlefield successes could be attributed partly to the multifront war being waged against the regime.

"[Anti-regime forces] have been fiercely attacking the regime across the country, so they have notched military achievements. [The AA] has also achieved military victories in Arakan State. Junta troops have been exhausted by fighting, and it does not take long to capture junta positions," said U Pe Than.

The regime has lost more than 70 towns since the Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in late October in northern Shan State, with the resumption of hostilities in Arakan State coming less than a month later.

Civilians in Arakan State are suffering from various hardships, meanwhile, as the regime has cut off Arakan State from other parts of the country.

The regime has also carried out indiscriminate air attacks on civilian populations in towns seized by the AA. Civilian casualties have continued to mount since the latest fighting began in November.