Regime plans counteroffensive against Arakan Army

By Admin 10 Nov 2025

DMG Newsroom

10 November 2025, Mrauk-U

Myanmar's military regime, which has lost control of 14 townships in Arakan State to the Arakan Army (AA), is reportedly preparing a counteroffensive to defend remaining towns and regain lost territory, according to locals and military observers.

The regime is said to be using maritime routes to supply towns including Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung with ammunition and reinforcements without obstruction.

It is believed that the junta intends to launch coordinated attacks by land, sea and air through the Gwa-Ngathainggyaung, Ann-Padan and Taungup-Padaung routes linking mainland Myanmar to Arakan State.

"The Myanmar military is now focusing on the Arakan Army. We see the junta rapidly deploying transport aircraft to both the navy and air force. What the military really wants is southern Arakan State," said Captain Zin Yaw, a participant in the Civil Disobedience Movement.

Military observers say the regime is likely to conduct operations targeting Ann, Taungup and Thandwe townships in southern Arakan State via Kyaukphyu, as part of a plan to reattack Ramree Island.

Kyaukphyu is considered a strategically and economically important township for the junta due to major Chinese-backed projects there. In the ongoing fighting near Kyaukphyu, junta troops are advancing to within about 14 miles of the town, while AA forces are reportedly retreating.

A resident of Ponnagyun said the regime appears to be preparing a counterattack on the township via Sittwe, using the Minchaung Bridge it previously destroyed, and is expected to advance with heavy weapons and air support.

Military observers believe the junta's daily airstrikes on Ponnagyun, Rathedaung and Pauktaw townships, which border Sittwe Township, are intended to pave the way for a ground offensive.

If the regime can recapture Ponnagyun, it would not only strengthen its control over Sittwe, the state capital, but also provide opportunities to extend military influence over northern Arakan State, including Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Rathedaung.

"While the military regime is attacking southern Arakan State, it is also trying to balance operations in the north. Even if it cannot seize southern Arakan, it will continue efforts to retake Ponnagyun," said Captain Zin Yaw.

Sources close to the AA said junta naval vessels are operating more frequently than before, apparently in preparation for coordinated land offensives through Maungtaung and Thandwe townships.

Observers note that while the regime's counteroffensive plans may have certain advantages, it faces logistical challenges, including shortages of food and reinforcements, as the AA controls most land routes.

"The military regime can attack the Arakan Army, but I don't think it can easily defeat it right now, because the AA controls the ground and likely has a significant number of troops stationed there," said Ko Tein Oo, former secretary of the All Arakan Students' and Youths' Congress (AASYC).

There is also speculation that the AA will be able to repel the junta's offensive, given its current advantages in manpower, local support, and battlefield experience.

Meanwhile, junta forces are conducting heavy artillery and airstrikes on villages, schools and camps for internally displaced people in AA-controlled areas, resulting in rising civilian casualties.