Min Aung Hlaing likely to take State Counsellor role in post-election government formation: Analysts

By Admin 21 Feb 2026

DMG Newsroom

21 February 2026, Nay Pyi Taw

Political analysts say Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, chief of Myanmar’s military regime, may assume either the role of State Counsellor or President in the new government the junta plans to form after the election.

At a meeting in Phuket, Thailand, on February 18, junta-appointed Foreign Minister U Than Swe and Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak discussed plans for forming a new government in Myanmar in late March, including the appointment of a President and a Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services.

The military regime has issued no official statement on the discussions. However, civil and military observers speculate that Min Aung Hlaing may relinquish his current post as Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services to take a powerful State Counsellor position that would enable him to retain authority.

“Min Aung Hlaing will likely step down as Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, with General Kyaw Swar Lin expected to succeed him,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a participant in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). “He probably won’t take the Presidency himself. Instead, he is expected to lead a Union Consultative Council that sits above the President. While the exact presidential candidate has yet to be confirmed, it is almost certain Min Aung Hlaing will appoint a proxy who will strictly follow his directives.”

The CDM captain added that General Kyaw Swar Lin, the current Chief of the General Staff, is a likely candidate for Commander-in-Chief. Other potential candidates for senior positions include General Aung Lin Dwe, retired secretary of the National Defence and Security Council; U Khin Yi, chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP); and U Nyo Saw, Prime Minister of the Union Government.

General Kyaw Swar Lin, a graduate of Defence Services Academy Intake 35, has served as Chief of the General Staff, the military’s third-highest post, since late 2024 and is widely regarded as a close ally of the junta chief.

A political analyst said the regime is expected to appoint trusted figures from its inner circle to key posts to maintain control over the political system.

“I believe Min Aung Hlaing will take the State Counsellor position,” said an Arakanese political analyst. “Although he is attached to his role as military chief, he will likely appoint a subordinate as the new Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services. From the State Counsellor position, he can oversee both the President and the military chief, effectively retaining control of the armed forces and ensuring continued military dominance in politics.”

On February 3, 2026, the military regime enacted the Union Consultative Council Law under Section 427 of the 2008 Constitution. The Myanmar Bar Council said the law grants the Council authority to intervene in the legislative, executive and judicial branches.

Some analysts noted that the 2008 Constitution does not explicitly prohibit one person from simultaneously holding the posts of military chief and State Counsellor, raising the possibility that Min Aung Hlaing could attempt to retain both positions.

“When examining the powers of the Chairman of the Union Consultative Council, the law allows him not only to advise the President but also to exert influence over the government and parliament,” said U Tun Kyi, a former political prisoner and political analyst. “The law does not state that the Council Chairman cannot also serve as military chief. If he became President, he would have to relinquish his military post. But as State Counsellor, he would not necessarily have to give up the military chief role, which would consolidate his power.”

Political observers warned that if the junta chief assumes the State Counsellor role, military involvement in politics is unlikely to diminish, raising concerns about prolonged authoritarian rule.

The junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has secured the right to nominate two vice-presidential candidates following its claimed electoral victory.